Portfolio Monitor
Investors in Unit Trusts, OEIC's,
Pep's and ISA's often face disappointment as popular funds rarely
live up to historic performance. Indeed our own research indicates
that the most popular funds, in terms of new investment by the
public at the end of calendar years, fail to live up to expectations
in the following year. Conversely, the least popular funds, comfortably
outperformed. This research is available here.
Why is successfully selecting
funds so difficult
We are all human and suffer from the
two emotions of fear and greed. When markets are low, fear become
the overriding emotion as we see how a fund/market has fallen
and fear that it will continue - this often deters the investor
from taking advantage of a buying opportunity!
When markets are high, and
rising, greed overtakes the investment process and the only fear
to be observed is that of losing out on further gains - this encourages
a frenzy of investment activity at a time when sensible advice
might be to steer clear!
Every time
I buy a fund it seems to fall
The amount of times we have heard
this comment is immeasurable. It is a fact of life that, left
to there own devices, many investors will buy at the top of markets,
and more often than not, wait many years for a recovery at which
point they decide that equity investment is not for them. Markets
and sectors tend to be cyclical and therefore successful investment
depends upon knowing where in the cycle a sector is.
The most dangerous practise
is buying a sector (not defined managed) fund on the basis of
an advertisement. Marketing departments of fund managers and some
advisors know that investors are generally only attracted to high
past performance, and therefore, they usually tend to market funds
that have had a recent history of unusually high growth. Often,
this is precisely the time that a prudent investor would be avoiding
such funds.
What is the answer?
Because of the emotional stresses
of investing it is extremely difficult for most investors to make
objective decisions - the fear of loss, and a tendency to continue
to hold funds with large gains, without taing some profits, being
the two most difficult ones. When a trusted advisor who genuinely
understands the foibles of the market is used, the investor has
a greater chance of avoiding overbought funds, and might even
be persuaded to invest in oversold areas where the greatest potential
for gain might exist.
Our 'Portfolio Monitor' service
aims to avoid these problems and can be accessed here.